Mongolia - Roads

Not applicable to this evaluation; no quantitative data to be shared

The evaluation will address the following evaluation areas:

Evaluation Area 1 tests the economic viability of MCC-funded roads by conducting a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to estimate the economic rate of return and net present value (NPV) of the roads. The CBA will employ the HDM-4 model, an analytical tool used to conduct CBA for roads. Post-Compact CBA re-evaluates the validity of the initial assumptions made prior to the Compact. An updated ERR of the MCC-funded roads will inform MCC on the economic viability of large road infrastructure projects.

Evaluation Area 2 will evaluate the road maintenance regime within Mongolia to test the sustainability of improvement in road infrastructure. A political economy analysis will be conducted to examine the effect of the road maintenance activities under the Roads Project. The analysis will improve MCCs assumption on post-Compact maintenance and project-life assumptions about its infrastructure investments.

Evaluation Area 3 is a study of road users, based on origin-destination (O-D) surveys on segments of the MCC-funded roads. The data collected from the O-D surveys will inform the HDM-4 model. Information such as the cost and duration of the trips and value of the goods being transported will be analyzed. The feasibility of surveying public transport users in parallel with the O-D surveys to get a full picture of the users and beneficiaries of the road improvements will also be considered. This evaluation area is intended to understand qualitative information on the road users and their travel patterns. The evaluation area will be also helpful for MCC to understand the type of direct beneficiaries from the Roads Project. Evaluation Area 3B is a study of how road usage patterns have changed since before the infrastructure project. Changes in usage can be obtained as part of O-D surveys.

Evaluation Area 4 is an analysis of the transportation market structure. This evaluation area will analyze transportation market structure, both formal and informal, to understand how cost savings from road improvements have passed on to transport consumers who do not own their own vehicles. While MCC did not directly work in this area, analysis of the formal and informal institutions of the transportation market will inform whether vehicle operating cost savings were passed on to road users who do not own their own vehicle, such as fisherman and farmers transporting their goods to market and public transportation users.

Below are the key evaluation questions for each evaluation area:

Evaluation Area 1

1) What is the economic return - calculated in terms of Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) savings and travel time (TT) savings - of the road investment? [Core]

Evaluation Area 2

2A) What are the relevant road authority's current maintenance practices and what is the likelihood that MCC's investment will remain adequately maintained for the life of the investment? Based on this assessment, what set of maintenance assumptions should be used in the HDM-4 model to yield the best estimate of the costs and benefits of the road investment? [Core]

2B) In cases where MCC invested in improving maintenance practices or included a maintenance Conditions Precedent in the Compact (applicable to Mongolia), what were the effects of those efforts and why? [Core]

2C) What political, and economic incentives are shaping road maintenance decisions in the country? And what other key factors are influencing actual maintenance practices? [Supplemental]

Evaluation Area 3

3A) Who is traveling on the road, why, what they are transporting, what they are paying for transport, and how long does it take to move along key routes? [Core]

3B) Have road usage patterns changed, in terms of who is traveling on the road, why, what they are transporting, what they are paying for transport, and how long it takes to move along key routes? [Supplemental]

Evaluation Area 4

4) How is the transportation market structured and what is the likelihood that VOC savings will be passed on to consumers of transportation services? [Supplemental]

Independent Ex-Post ERR and HDM-4 Individuals, community, administrative units

Other

Choir-Sainshand road segment