Senegal - Roads

- v01: Edited, anonymous dataset for public distribution.

An economic analysis (HDM-4/RED) and a performance evaluation (maintenance/transport sector work) of the MCC Senegal Roads Rehabilitation Project.

This EDR covers the following research areas:

0. Project Implementation

a. The methodology for analyzing the extent to which the RRP was implemented as planned

and documentation of any deviations from original plan. There is currently no guidance on where deviations were made from the original plan - further information will be required on this to complete the evaluation.

1. Engineering Analysis and Economic Modelling

a. The methodology for assessing the quality of existing data, and a plan for updating data

collection required for modelling purposes. This determines the road map for how the contractor plans to meet the data-quality level specified (i.e. IQL-2) and what protocol for roadside data collection to include.

b. The methodology for determining the HDM-4 assumptions used to model costs and benefits, including options for improving assumptions (e.g. Comparing past investment

trends against overall asset quality over time).

c. The approach used to review MCC's modelling of the ex-ante performance of the

infrastructure. This review will inform the model's parameters and re-adjust assumptions where needed.

d. The proposed methodology and assumptions to be used to update the project's Economic Rate-of-Return (ERR) calculations.

2. Maintenance

a. A descriptive review and technical assessment of the road authority's maintenance

practices, including a comparison of the road authority's administrative records and reports of maintenance resources, for both elements of RRP.

b. A Political economy analysis of road maintenance and improvement in investment decisions (planning, budgeting, implementation and oversight relative to the road authority's program for the infrastructure).

3. Road Usage Patterns

a. A methodology for estimating traffic composition along each road element. It includes

road-user representative estimates of changes in travel times and transport costs.

b. An assessment of the costs and value of gathering origin- destination (O-D) evidence (O-D

vehicle intercept surveys versus other methods for gathering road usage data on relevant road segments)

c. An assessment of the changes in road usage patterns through retrospective data collection. d. An exploration of changes in the structure of transportation demand, including addressing

whether changes have occurred as a result of MCC road investments or due to unrelated factors.

4. Transportation Market Structure

a. An evaluation of the Senegalese transport market structure and the institutions that

regulate and govern it, including possible noncompetitive market behavior. This includes a literature review summarizing the current evidence for the institutional structure of the Senegalese transport industry, and how it is regulated.

b. An efficiency analysis of the commercial road-transport industry and how changes in vehicle operating costs (VOCs) affect costs and purchaser pricing and how political- economy factors affect cost-savings pass through.

Independent Ex-Post ERR and HDM-4 individuals, households, commercial enterprises

Sample survey data [ssd]

For both Activity 1:RN2 and Activity 2: RN6

Traffic Count Survey: Location: well outside the cities or villages crossed (2-6 km from the limits of the populated areas); Adjustments: Using secondary data (example fuel consumption and GoS national transport statistics) to adjust for seasonal variation; Survey period: 24 hours/day; Survey days: 7 consecutive days encompassing all market days

Orgin-Destination Survey: Location: well outside the cities or villages crossed; Survey period: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.;Survey days: 4 consecutive days (including market and non-market days) on stations on each road;Sample rate: 10% of each vehicle type at each station.

Vehicle Operating Cost Survey: VOC data will be collected from: vehicle dealerships, garage/servicing companies, fuel price (secondary if possible), bus and road haulage operators, taxi and minibus operators

Axle load data collection and survey: Will be collect axle load data from Afrique Pesage through the Direction des Routes (Directorate of Roads) (2014-2018 data is already available to ET).

International Roughness Index data collection: Willl use laser profilometer, which is available in Senegal and is Class 3 per ASTM standard E1926. AGEROUTE has been using this equipment since 2015. Thus, using the same equipment will ensure consistency in methodology. However, the majority of the firms only having Bump Integrator, the ET will not exclude the use of this equipment for cost-effectiveness, noting that the Pump Integrator is also Class 3. ; Measurement will be carried out at outer wheel path; Interval: continuous measurement over the whole length of the roads. Results will be reported at intervals of 100 meters.;

High resolution video: Will use the data currently collected by AGEROUTE and use the high-resolution videos for quality check; High-resolution videos will be collected using a dashcam with GPS capability embarked on a vehicle (same vehicle as the one that will be used for IRI measurement)

Regionally; Senegal River Valley and Casamance