El Salvador - Connectivity (HDM-4)

- v01: Edited, anonymous dataset for public distribution.

Economic Analysis and Independent Evaluation Services

The Evaluation Team (ET) will conduct an independent calculation of the post-project economic rate of return (ERR) achieved by the activities within the delivered compact projects. This economic evaluation will be supplemented by a qualitative review across a series of standardized research questions (RQs). The specific research areas (RAs) and RQs to be reviewed as part of this independent evaluation are as follows:

RA0: Project Implementation. RQ0: Was the Connectivity Project implemented according to plan?

RA1: Engineering Analysis and Economic Model. RQ1: What is the Connectivity Project's economic return - calculated in terms of vehicle operating costs (VOC) savings and travel time savings (TTS)? What factors drove changes to the ERR over time? Optional: How could the project have been designed to result in a higher ERR?

RA2: Road Maintenance. RQ2: Current Practices. What is the likelihood the investments made under the Connectivity Project will remain adequately maintained? Based on this assessment, what set of maintenance assumptions should be used in the Fourth Highway Development and Management (HDM-4) model to yield the best estimate of road investment costs and benefits?

RA3: Road Usage Patterns. RQ3a: Current Users. Who is traveling on the road, why, what are they transporting, what are they paying for transport and how long does it take to move along key routes? RQ3b: Changes in Road Usage Patterns. Have road usage patterns changed, in terms of who is traveling on the road, why, what they are transporting, what they are paying for transport, and how long it takes to move along key routes?

Independent Ex-Post ERR and HDM-4 Individuals, Firms

Sample survey data [ssd]

RQ0 - Interviews; Sample unit or respondent to include: MCC, MOP, FOMILENIO I, FOVIAL, other stakeholders. The interviews will allow the ET to understand from those involved some of the challenges with the implementation, reasons for design changes, and subsequent modeling of these changes. The ET staff in charge of conducting the interviews will be able to work in Spanish and English. The interviewers will use a pre-written interview guide or questionnaire.

RQ2 - International Roughness Index (IRI) - IRI is used to define a characteristic of the longitudinal profile of a traveled wheel track and constitutes a standardized roughness measurement in meters per kilometer. IRI measurements will be collected using a laser profilometer. IRI surveys can be conducted on the NTH in 2020, as these road sections have showed signs of deterioration some 7 to 10 years after construction. All sections of the NTH will be sampled.

Visual Condition Survey. Visual condition surveys will be undertaken at the same time as the IRI surveys for the NTH. A visual road condition survey in accordance with the Distress Identification Manual for the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) (DOT, 2003) will be conducted on project roads to record their condition.

Semi-Structured Interviews; MCC and FOMILENIO staff, GoES officials (including the MOP), FOVIAL staff, maintenance contractor staff, other donors, transport operators, and transport associations. Interviews will be conducted either with individuals or with small groups of two to three individuals. ET will target those respondents who are or were most closely involved in the road projects and in maintenance.

RQ3 - Traffic Counts. Information required to understand the aggregate traffic flow by vehicle type, road section, and activity. This is expected to be done via automatic traffic counts or manual classified counts (the former preferred).

Origin-Destination (O-D) Surveys; Information that explains the qualitative reasons for the journey, including what is being transported, the cost of transportation, and reasons for travel. These data will require a manual intercept survey approach. Survey will use recall method to ask road users how their travel patterns have changed since opening of road.

Northern Zone